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Financial analysis and non conformist thoughts from Bruce 

17
Dec
2017

Seasonal thoughts on Goodwill

Tis the season of goodwill.  As it happens I am reading a book on Goodwill – not the goodwill of everyday usage, but accounting and economic Goodwill.  Capitalism without Capital by Jonathan Haskel  ,‎ Stian Westlake   I have found Goodwill fascinating ever since I read Buffett’s 1983 essay on Goodwill and balance sheet accounting.  It’s a little bit of a departure from my attempts...
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29
Nov
2017

Embracing the unpopular

I am attempting to use machine learning to find i) good companies AND ii) the right time to buy the shares. So rather than analyse lots of different companies’ statements, trying to identify characteristics in the text, I focused on one company. A good company is not always a good investment: Solid States share price had trundled along at circa...
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5
Oct
2017

Difficult opportunities

“True words are not fine sounding Fine sounding words are not true.” – Lao Tzu, Tao T Ching I’ve been a sceptical for a while about how anyone might make money from using technology to analyse sentiment. The hedge fund set up in late 2010 to implement the Twitter mood strategy, Derwent Capital Markets, failed and closed in early 2012....
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27
Aug
2017

Sectoral heterochromia

“Aviation in the evening, I can feel it coming on” – Aviation: The Last Shadow Puppets Professional fund managers tend to make their name by taking big sector positions. Famously Neil Woodford did very well avoiding banks, and owning tobacco companies. When I started everyone loved technology and hated mining companies. Then 10 years later this reversed, mining companies had...
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2
Aug
2017

The wisdom of clouds

Small details can lead to big differences.  Often it’s not even the details, just things you can’t quite put your finger on.  I’ve been looking at a couple of companies that do the same thing, are the same size, operate in same industry but one is 6 times more valuable than the other.  I’ve been messing around with a programming...
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18
Jun
2017

The Red-Headed League

“For strange effects and extraordinary combinations we must go to life itself, which is always far more daring than any effort of the imagination.” Sherlock Holmes I’ve been re-reading Sherlock Holmes stories, like The Red Headed League. One reason the stories are so effective is that the reader understands the genre, but it’s still hard to see what Holmes can see,...
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