Welcome to my blog

Financial analysis and non conformist thoughts from Bruce 

5
Apr
2021

Greek (names) bearing gifts

Like most people, before last weekend, I’d never heard of Bill Hwang or Archegos. The name of his hedge fund that is now making headlines for spectacularly blowing up just doesn’t make much sense to me. Names are not just names, they come with an explanation or a story. For instance David Einhorn’s Greenlight  (because his wife gave him the...
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2
Mar
2021

The lowest risk bank on the LSE

Compared to even 5 years ago, there are some really excellent online resources for UK investors. Of course there is Sharepad (which you can subscribe to through this link here)  Another one is Mello Events, where David Stredder asks interesting companies, fund managers and other speakers to talk about investment. The evening finishes with a semi-competitive “BASH” (Buy Avoid Sell Hold)...
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7
Feb
2021

The original Q

I’ve been reading Bellingcat’s timeline analysis of QAnon and I was reminded that before QAnon, there was Q – standing for Quelle (source in German). Q is a source of sayings that appear in the Gospels of Matthew and Luke, but not in Mark. From this 19th century Theologians deduced that there was another source “Q”, which both writers were...
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26
Jan
2021

A compound interest parable

A friend asked me to help her calculate the cost of her pension (over 2% per annum).  I did a quick =FV(expect return %, number of years, annual payment amount) in Excel, showing the effect of a 7% CAGR falling to 5% CAGR over 35 years.  I then told her the cumulative absolute amount of costs, rather than the 2%...
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12
Jan
2021

Amateurs

Last weekend we had the 3rd round of the FA Cup, where top professionals compete against amateurs.  In most parts of life, you would expect the professionals to beat the amateurs convincingly. However I came across a blog post by someone called the undercover fund manager, explaining the advantages that amateurs enjoy relative to professionals in investing.  He admits that...
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21
Dec
2020

Labelling warnings

Inspired by the chap at value and opportunity I thought I should increase the frequency of blog posts. I’ve not been blogging on my site much because I’ve writing 2500 words a week for ShareScope / SharePad  on company results. As I’m being paid to write, I’ve been prioritising that. As an aside SharePad is an excellent product. It appeals...
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2
Nov
2020

On value and information

My weekly comments are now available outside of the Sharescope paywall here: If you’d like to read the most up to date analysis, you’ll need to subscribe to Sharepad It is an irony in financial services, that frequently the best quality analysis is free.  For instance: Warren Buffett’s shareholder letters Dan McCrum’s analysis of the Wirecard fraud on FT Alphaville...
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24
Aug
2020

A new role

At the moment I have several projects I’m working on all at the same time.  Don’t worry, I haven’t decided to turn pro and become a full time beach volleyball player.  Instead I have taken on a new free lancer role, writing pieces for sharepad.  So it feels like this blog may go quiet for a couple of months, while...
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7
Jul
2020

Remorseless

While every short seller is still celebrating the demise of Wirecard, I thought it might be worth writing about another financial institution that is in the 95% club – the share price has fallen 95% since the start of 2014. Incorporated under the laws of the British Virgin Islands, the bank I’m thinking of has grown by making an alphabet...
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