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Financial analysis and non conformist thoughts from Bruce 

31
Dec
2019

Soap on the water

Inspired by Gregory Zuckerman’s book on Jim Simmons  I thought that I’d try some Markov Chain analysis on company announcements. Although it is not entirely clear what Simmons does to generate consistently high returns year after year, it seems to be something to do with Markov Chains, or hidden Markov Processes. Markov chains assume the outcome of one event depends...
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22
Nov
2019

Just parsing through

Previously I had been using the programming language “R” to parse through company announcements and comparing them for clues on future performance.  I’ve been using decision trees and random forests to see if companies that have performed well over the last 5 years use similar language.  Linguistic comparisons between companies are interesting, but the same company can often shift from...
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29
Oct
2019

The high price of certainty

I am currently doing some consulting projects for AxiaFunder , which is a litigation finance platform that connects High Net Worth Individuals and sophisticated investors with pre-vetted court cases.  As an early investor in Burford Capital, I’ve long been fascinated by litigation finance, and the value of uncertain, intangible assets with asymetric returns. Below is something I’ve written on the...
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2
Oct
2019

Ergodicity

I first came across the word ergodicity in a book about information theory, which I was reading because I was interested in the (unicycle riding, flame throwing trumpet playing mathematician) Claude Shannon.* Then I discovered NN Taleb and Ole Peters talking about ergodicity in a totally different context.  Put simply: the concept is about calculating 2 types of average: ensemble...
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12
Jul
2019

Cluster One

Last year I was playing around with Euclidean Distance, https://brucepackard.com/wood-from-the-trees/ taking a sample of companies from 5 years ago, and seeing if the best performing companies used similar words with similar frequency. The technique comes from Mathew Jocker’s book, and has been used in the past for authorship attribution for documents where authorship is disputed. Two documents which are close...
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25
Jun
2019

Jeux sans frontiers

I’ve been meaning to publish something on Games Workshop since it has become my largest position.  According to Bloomberg the shares are up 1000% in 3 years (best BREXIT performing stock).  It’s rather nice when a medium conviction idea (ie third largest position by cost) becomes a ten bagger.  Sadly my higher conviction ideas (Bank of Georgia, The Mission Marketing...
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1
Mar
2019

Same, Same, but different

Even before Warren Buffett gave up on showing long term book value progression in his Annual Shareholders letter, others were noticing that price / book had a problem.  According to a paper by OSAM there are currently over 100 companies in the US with negative book value. To me, it is the qualities that book value can’t capture that matter....
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