12
Jul
2019

Cluster One

Last year I was playing around with Euclidean Distance, https://brucepackard.com/wood-from-the-trees/ taking a sample of companies from 5 years ago, and seeing if the best performing companies used similar words with similar frequency. The technique comes from Mathew Jocker’s book, and has been used in the past for authorship attribution for documents where authorship is disputed....
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25
Jun
2019

Jeux sans frontiers

I’ve been meaning to publish something on Games Workshop since it has become my largest position.  According to Bloomberg the shares are up 1000% in 3 years (best BREXIT performing stock).  It’s rather nice when a medium conviction idea (ie third largest position by cost) becomes a ten bagger.  Sadly my higher conviction ideas (Bank...
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24
Jan
2019

Everyone’s a winner

Drinks with an outsourcing analyst last month we were laughing about how, for her sector, it was 2008. It’s not fun to be an analyst when your sector becomes uninvestable. “No one trusts the management, the numbers, the forecasts, the accounting.” I laughed, it brought back some old memories. There are interesting parallels. Like banks...
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