Blog

12
Jan
2021

Amateurs

Last weekend we had the 3rd round of the FA Cup, where top professionals compete against amateurs.  In most parts of life, you would expect the professionals to beat the amateurs convincingly. However I came across a blog post by someone called the undercover fund manager, explaining the advantages that amateurs enjoy relative to professionals in investing.  He admits that...
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21
Dec
2020

Labelling warnings

Inspired by the chap at value and opportunity I thought I should increase the frequency of blog posts. I’ve not been blogging on my site much because I’ve writing 2500 words a week for ShareScope / SharePad  on company results. As I’m being paid to write, I’ve been prioritising that. As an aside SharePad is an excellent product. It appeals...
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2
Nov
2020

On value and information

My weekly comments are now available outside of the Sharescope paywall here: If you’d like to read the most up to date analysis, you’ll need to subscribe to Sharepad It is an irony in financial services, that frequently the best quality analysis is free.  For instance: Warren Buffett’s shareholder letters Dan McCrum’s analysis of the Wirecard fraud on FT Alphaville...
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24
Aug
2020

A new role

At the moment I have several projects I’m working on all at the same time.  Don’t worry, I haven’t decided to turn pro and become a full time beach volleyball player.  Instead I have taken on a new free lancer role, writing pieces for sharepad.  So it feels like this blog may go quiet for a couple of months, while...
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7
Jul
2020

Remorseless

While every short seller is still celebrating the demise of Wirecard, I thought it might be worth writing about another financial institution that is in the 95% club – the share price has fallen 95% since the start of 2014. Incorporated under the laws of the British Virgin Islands, the bank I’m thinking of has grown by making an alphabet...
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21
Jun
2020

A quick thought on Wirecard

On 18th June Wirecard announced: Wirecard AG’s auditor Ernst & Young GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, Munich, informed Wirecard AG that no sufficient audit evidence could be obtained so far of cash balances on trust accounts to be consolidated in the consolidated financial statements in the amount of EUR 1.9 billion (approximately a quarter of the consolidated balance sheet total). The share price...
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10
Jun
2020

Recurring revenue and moats

A friend on twitter, Andrew who runs https://www.fundhunter.co/ asked an interesting question: is recurring revenue a “moat” in itself?  That is, do all companies that have recurring revenue / customers who stay for years, have competitive advantages (and by implication report high returns on capital).  After thinking about it for 10 seconds I replied with an unambiguous “NO!” * I...
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25
Apr
2020

Analysing uncertainty – TMI

“These days everyone has the same data regarding the present and the same ignorance regarding the future.” Howard Marks   I’m fascinated by this talk on Three Mile Island (TMI) and analysing different stories around what caused the disaster. Please do watch the whole thing. You’ll thank me I promise! Who, or what, was to blame for TMI? Our minds...
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