16
Jan
2020
Voluntary Disclosure
This is the second of 2 blog posts on PZ Cussons. I thought I might as well publish it before H1 Results are out on Tues 28th January. The first post looked at how PZ Cussons had been a 1000 bagger from the 1950s, but had recently (in the last 10 years) lost its way... Read More
31
Dec
2019
Soap on the water
Inspired by Gregory Zuckerman’s book on Jim Simmons I thought that I’d try some Markov Chain analysis on company announcements. Although it is not entirely clear what Simmons does to generate consistently high returns year after year, it seems to be something to do with Markov Chains, or hidden Markov Processes. Markov chains assume the... Read More
22
Nov
2019
Just parsing through
Previously I had been using the programming language “R” to parse through company announcements and comparing them for clues on future performance. I’ve been using decision trees and random forests to see if companies that have performed well over the last 5 years use similar language. Linguistic comparisons between companies are interesting, but the same... Read More
29
Oct
2019
The high price of certainty
I am currently doing some consulting projects for AxiaFunder , which is a litigation finance platform that connects High Net Worth Individuals and sophisticated investors with pre-vetted court cases. As an early investor in Burford Capital, I’ve long been fascinated by litigation finance, and the value of uncertain, intangible assets with asymetric returns. Below is... Read More